Netherlands set for first new prime minister in 13 years as voters head to polls (2024)

Dutch voters are voting in a knife-edge general election that will usher in the country’s first new prime minister in 13 years, with four parties from left to far right vying to become the largest in parliament.

From the Anne Frank House in Amsterdam to the islands of the Dutch Caribbean, more than 13 million voters will cast their ballot between 7.30am and 9pm in elections that could set the country on a different course after Mark Rutte’s four consecutive governments.

With the latest polls indicating a rise in support for Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), the final days of campaigning have been marked by discussion over tactical voting and possible coalition arrangements.

The leader of the largely economically and socially liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, has broken precedent by saying she would work with Wilders if her party garnered the most votes – although on Tuesday she ruled out supporting him as prime minister if he won the largest share.

“I don’t see that happening,” she told Dutch radio. “The Netherlands is looking for a leader who can unite the country … who is for all Dutch people, who can lead our country internationally. I also don’t see that Mr Wilders could build a majority.”

If the VVD triumphs, Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, a former refugee who champions stricter migration controls, could become the Netherlands’ first female prime minister.

Frans Timmermans, the former EU heavyweight who returned to the Netherlands to lead a GreenLeft/Labour alliance, has appealed to voters to keep out a government in which the far-right plays a role. According to EenVandaag research, it appears to be having an effect, with almost half of his supporters voting strategically for him instead of smaller parties.

Pieter Omtzigt, leader of the New Social Contract (NSC) – a new centre-right party campaigning for better governance and controlled immigration – has also said he will not enter a coalition that contained Wilders’ party.

The most recent survey by EenVandaag showed a 10-seat gain by the PVV, to 27 seats of the total 150, putting Wilders closely behind the VVD, on 29. The PVV’s manifesto calls for an immigration “stop”, a ban on Islamic schools, mosques and the Qur’an. The last government fell in July over the issue of asylum seekers.

Whatever emerges, this election will shift the Dutch political landscape, with 26 parties standing on pressing issues including housing, immigration, guaranteeing a basic standard of living and the climate crisis.

“The two things we can expect are that we will no longer have any ‘big’ parties left – good luck finding a majority – and high volatility, which makes it extremely difficult to make any sort of predictions about the outcome,” said Léonie de Jonge, assistant professor in European politics and society at Groningen University.

Tom Louwerse, associate professor at Leiden University’s institute of political science, who runs a poll averaging site, said the fact that it was a close battle between four parties meant that both a rightwing coalition and a left-centre-right one with Timmermans were possible.

While the VVD is leading the polls, it is closely followed by the PVV, GreenLeft/Labour and Omtzigt’s NSC.

“We have seen quite some movement over the last week, with the PVV gaining and NSC losing ground,” said Louwerse. “Still, all of these parties are on somewhere between 12% and 19%, so this is testament to the large degree of fragmentation.”

Another major issue is mistrust in government, something that Amsterdam University political science professor Tom van der Meer calls a “crisis of trustworthiness” since it stems from a series of government scandals.

Both in voters with a minority ethnic background and those supporting far-right parties, says Utrecht University social scientist Marcel Lubbers, many Dutch do not feel their voices are heard.

“Among voters with an immigrant background, a large majority feels their interests are not well represented in politics but we also see this among a very large group without immigration backgrounds who vote for anti-immigration parties,” he said.

The election, however, could shake things up. “Elections tend to boost trust, people recognise politicians listen to them but, more importantly, people are able to ensure the composition of the lower house is again in line with their aims and their values,” said Van der Meer.

“And people are more willing to accept and even forgive a new set of politicians for not immediately being able to solve issues.”

Rozemarijn Lubbe, a pollster at EenVandaag’s opinion panel, said that a decision by Wilders to take what appeared to be a slightly more moderate tone in recent weeks may have persuaded some voters to back him.

“There are people who really want a rightwing party, not with Timmermans, and they support the PVV strategically.

“But a poll is not a prediction and we know from the last election that 10% of people made their choice on the last day or even in the voting booth. Voter uncertainty, the final debate, strategic voting and the turnout will be decisive factors.”

According to I&O Research’s last poll on Tuesday, 63% of people had still not made a definitive decision on who to vote for.

At the final election debate on Tuesday night, Wilders came under stout attack from all sides. He claimed that, despite his criticism of Islam, if he had “the honour to be prime minister, I would be that for all Dutch people”.

Yeşilgöz-Zegerius replied: “I don’t think anyone believes that, and I don’t think Wilders even believes it himself.

“If you look at Wilders’ plans honestly, they are shutting off the Netherlands from the world, bankrupting the country … and [saying] certain groups don’t belong. Even if he tears up his manifesto, I don’t believe it.”

Rob Jetten, leader of the liberal democratic D66 party, later stood up for the value of migration and internationalism and accused Wilders of using foreigners as a “scapegoat” for his “political earning model”.

He added: “People of Turkish or Surinamese background are sitting on their sofas wondering: ‘Do I belong here?’ I will always resist intolerant policy.”